Wegwarth,O.
Schwartz,L.M.
Woloshin,S.
Gaissmaier,W.
Gigerenzer,G.

Reader Survey: Test your knowledge of cancer screening statisticsBackground: Unlike reduced mortality rates, improved survival rates and increased early detection do not prove that cancer screening tests save lives. Nevertheless, these 2 statistics are often used to promote screening.Objective: To learn whether primary care physicians understand which statistics provide evidence about whether screening saves lives.Design: Parallel-group, randomized trial (randomization controlled for order effect only), conducted by Internet survey. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00981019)Setting: National sample of U.S. primary care physicians from a research panel maintained by Harris Interactive (79 \% cooperation rate).Participants: 297 physicians who practiced both inpatient and outpatient medicine were surveyed in 2010, and 115 physicians who practiced exclusively outpatient medicine were surveyed in 2011.Intervention: Physicians received scenarios about the effect of 2 hypothetical screening tests: The effect was described as improved 5-year survival and increased early detection in one scenario and as decreased cancer mortality and increased incidence in the other.Measurements: Physicians' recommendation of screening and perception of its benefit in the scenarios and general knowledge of screening statistics.Results: Primary care physicians were more enthusiastic about the screening test supported by irrelevant evidence (5-year survival increased from 68 \% to 99 \% ) than about the test supported by relevant evidence (cancer mortality reduced from 2 to 1.6 in 1000 persons). When presented with irrelevant evidence, 69 \% of physicians recommended the test, compared with 23 \% when presented with relevant evidence (P < 0.001). When asked general knowledge questions about screening statistics, many physicians did not distinguish between irrelevant and relevant screening evidence; 76 \% versus 81 \% , respectively, stated that each of these statistics proves that screening saves lives (P = 0.39). About one half (47 \% ) of the physicians incorrectly said that finding more cases of cancer in screened as opposed to unscreened populations “proves that screening saves lives.”Limitation: Physicians' recommendations for screening were based on hypothetical scenarios, not actual practice.Conclusion: Most primary care physicians mistakenly interpreted improved survival and increased detection with screening as evidence that screening saves lives. Few correctly recognized that only reduced mortality in a randomized trial constitutes evidence of the benefit of screening.Primary Funding Source: Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development.

Wegwarth, O., Schwartz, L. M., Woloshin, S., Gaissmaier, W., & Gigerenzer, G. (2012). Do physicians understand cancer screening statistics? A national survey of primary care physicians in the United States. Annals of Internal Medicine, 156, 340-349, W-92-W-94. (Full text)

Publication year	2012
Document type:	Article
Publication status:	Published
External URL:	http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/ow/OW_Do_2012.pdf View
Categories:	Health
Keywords:	*clinical competence*physicians, primary careearly detection of cancer/*statistics & numericalhumansneoplasms/epidemiology/mortalityphysician's practice patternsquestionnairessurvival rateunited states/epidemiology