Schulze,C.
Newell,B.R.

Probability matching is a robust and common failure to adhere to normative predictions in sequential decision making. We show that this choice anomaly is nearly eradicated by gathering individual decision makers into small groups and asking the groups to decide. The group choice advantage emerged both when participants generated responses for an entire sequence of choices without outcome feedback (Exp.1a) and when participants made trial-by-trial predictions with outcome feedback after each decision (Exp.1b). We show that the dramatic improvement observed in group settings stands in stark contrast to a complete lack of effective solitary deliberation. These findings suggest a crucial role of group discussion in alleviating the impact of hasty intuitive responses in tasks better suited to careful deliberation.

Schulze, C., & Newell, B. R. (2015). More heads choose better than one: Group decision making can eliminate probability matching. Advance online publication. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. doi:10.3758/s13423-015-0949-6 (Full text)

Publication year	2015
Document type:	Article
Publication status:	Published
External URL:	http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-015-0949-6 View
Categories:
Keywords:	group decision makingprobability matchingrational choice theory