Quick estimation: Letting the environment do the work (1999)
Authors
Abstract
(from the chapter) Designed a heuristic (QuickEst) adapted to make fast and frugal estimates in environments with a particular statistical structure. The authors review previous research on quantitative estimation, focusing on how people estimate numbers of events (both types and tokens) that may include objects, people, or episodes. Two classes of estimation mechanisms (estimation by direct retrieval and estimation by inference) are reviewed. The authors demonstrate by simulation that where knowledge is scarce, the fast and frugal QuickEst outperforms or at least matches the performance of more expensive methods such as multiple regression and estimation trees. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Bibliographic entry
Hertwig, R., Hoffrage, U., & Martignon, L. (1999). Quick estimation: Letting the environment do the work. In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group., Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 209-234). New York: Oxford University Press.
Miscellaneous
| Publication year | 1999 | |
|---|---|---|
| Document type: | In book | |
| Publication status: | Published | |
| External URL: | ||
| Categories: | ||
| Keywords: | *decision making*ecological factors*environment*estimation*heuristic modelingstatistical probability |