Jenny,M.A.

Examined whether the conjunction fallacy (CF) is an instance of individuals misconstruing the judgmental problem and providing estimates of reverse probabilities instead of the quantities being sought by the experimenter. In Study 1, 94 19–79 yr olds provided both types of probabilities at the same time. Results revealed a drop in the incidence of the CF to 32% averaged over all scenarios. In each scenario the 2 sets of estimates, normal and reverse, were significantly different from each other, indicating that Ss were capable of distinguishing the 2 concepts. Despite this, in 2 of the 4 scenarios Ss continued to commit CF. Results cast doubt on the account of CF by G. Wolford et al (see record [rid]1990-18966-001[/rid]). Studies 2 (with 68 16–79 yr olds) and 3 (with 63 16–69 yr olds) showed that under certain conditions, most Ss' judgments of the kind P(XΑ&B) > P(XΒ) were inconsistent with Bayes' theorem even in broad terms. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)

Jenny, M. A. (2015). The conjunction effect. In M. Altman (Ed.), Real-world decision making: An encyclopedia of behavioral economics (pp. 71-72). Greenwood: ABC-CLIO.

Publication year	2015
Document type:	In book
Publication status:	Published
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Keywords:	cognitioncontextual associationsenglandmathematical modelingprobability judgmentreasoning