Pedersen,A.P.
Wheeler,G.

Dilation occurs when upper and lower probability estimates of some event E are properly included in the upper and lower probability estimates of the probability of E conditional on another event F, resulting in a change from a more precise estimate of E to a less precise estimate of E upon learning F. Strict dilation occurs when E is dilated by every event in a partition, which means that sometimes E becomes less precise no matter how an experiment turns out. Many think that strict dilation is a pathological feature of indeterminate probability models, while others have thought the problem is with Bayesian updating. However, two points are often overlooked in critical discussions of dilation: i) knowing that E is stochastically independent of F (for all F in a partition) is sufficient to avoid strict dilation, but ii) stochastic independence is not the only independence concept at play within indeterminate probability models. Since the most sensational alleged dilation examples are those which play up independence between dilator and dilatee, the sensationalism in these cases traces either to fallacious reasoning with indeterminate probabilities or to improperly constructed indeterminate probability models.

Pedersen, A. P., & Wheeler, G. (2014). Demystifying dilation. Erkenntnis, 79, 1305-1342. doi:10.1007/s10670-013-9531-7 (Full text)

Publication year	2014
Document type:	Article
Publication status:	Published
External URL:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10670-013-9531-7 View
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